Tuesday, May 06, 2003

The Prisoner's Dilemma

There is an ideology about the possible outcomes of conflict. It is this study that gave way to the development of board games, card games, video games, etc. The main formats of the idea are win/win (cooperative), win/lose (head to head) and play/play (expected outcome if nothing changes). Most games you think of will fall under one of these three categories.

There is a story that gives example to these ideas of conflict. It's called the Prisoner's Dilemma. There are many versions of the story but the basic premise is that two people have committed a crime together, however there is not enough evidence to convict them. The suspects are brought in for questioning, kept in separate cells with the intent of getting at least one confession to make the conviction. All the suspects have to do to avoid the charge is if both do not confess. With the lack of evidence in the case, they will be set free. This is the win/win scenario.

Another option, and this is where the dilemma comes in, should one of the suspects confess to the crime indicting the other, the confessor will be let free. He will be given immunity which means no probation and the other will be sentenced to the maximum term in prison for the crime with no possibility of parole. This it the win/lose scenario.

The last option is that the two suspects become so paranoid that the other is going to tell on them that they both confess to the crime. In which case, they will be given a prison sentence with some leniency because of the confessions. This is the play/play scenario because it is the expected result. It's what will happen every time unless something in the setup is changed. Games like Tic Tac Toe or Paper, Rock, Scissors are play/play if the participants do the expected, the result will be the same every time.

The story has a game version and point values were assigned to the three outcomes. They vary in the different versions but the format is the same. If both suspects cooperate, they're each given 3 points. If both confess, each get 1 point, and if one confesses and the other does not, the confessor gets 5 points and the other gets 0. You play the rounds 10 times and whoever has the most number of points at the end, wins the game. I know it sounds like a boring game, (like Paper, Rock, Scissors, and Tic Tac Toe) but it's the format that most games are based on and it's interesting to see what other people decide. If you get an optimist, you can take advantage of it until they stop being the optimist. If you get a pessimist, you can play it safe. If you get a realist, then things will get tough and if you're up against a telepath (has you figured out), then things will get really tough.

Just something to think about.